Indici Teleconnettivi Inverno 2007/2008.

[Stormchaser]

Iniziamo a parlare delle possibilità di inverno che si iniziano a prospettare seguendo gli indici teleconnettivi vari.

lo so è un po prestuccio però a mio parere qualcosina si potrebbe gia dire. ovviamente non è sicuro che ciò che vado a dire in questo topic prenderà forma reale, ma intanto noi proviamo a delineare un percorso...

[Stormchaser]

parliamo di QBO, ovvero la Quasi Biennal Oscillation.

come sapete questo indice misura la ciclicità dell’inversione zonale che caratterizza le correnti equatoriali a 50hpa e 30hpa. Il ciclo standard è di circa 20-36 mesi, con una media di 28 mesi, per tornare al punto di partenza.

Se la QBO positiva è associata a venti zonali stratosferici occidentali, mentre se negativa il flusso d'aria proviene da est invece che da ovest e ciò comporta un flusso zonale debole e probabilità di scambi meridiani accentuati. Ovviamente tutti voi sapete cosa vuol dire ciò! :D :D :D

come vediamo dai dati in questo link, siamo finalmente arrivati all'inversione da QBO+ a QBO- nei mesi di febbraio-aprile...e questo inizia ad essere un buon segnale ragazzi.

per vedere i dai di cui sto parlando potete andare qui: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

[Stormchaser]

Ricordiamo poi che anche il MetOffice Inglese aveva detto la sua:
"...the figure below shows that the predicted winter nao index for 2007/8 is weakly negative at -0.34 with a standard error of ±1.0. the relatively small amplitude of the predicted index relative to the error bar means there is little associated signal for below- or above-normal european winter temperatures or precipitation. However, the prediction is consistent with a cooler, drier winter over northern europe as a whole than experienced in winter 2006/7, when the observed index was +1.1......"


per ora è tutto. Vediamo nei prossimi aggiornamenti.

[NIX FORTIS]

Come sempre quadro eccelso!

[Nevizio BANNATO A VITA]

Per quanto possano valere vederli ora...ci sono tanti segnali positivi....ma daltronde come è noto la triade non deluderà :asd

[NIX FORTIS]

Ho tanto bisogno di rivedere la neve sulla costa, ma veramente tanto!

[Stormchaser]

Come sempre quadro eccelso!

gracias...

[Stormchaser]

notizie anche dalla NASA.

si il sole è il più potente indice teleconnettivo che influenza il nostro clima ragazzi, a meno che non ci si metta il pianeta stesso, o tutti e due che sarebbe catastroficamente peggio, come potete immaginare.

allora l'articolo è in english e ve lo posto integrale...poi faccio un riassunto. (comunque si capisce)

The Sun Loses its Spots
Maybe it's the Calm Before the Storm

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/3648/182956mainsunlatest6d29jh0.jpg

Image above: The latest image of the Sun from SOHO. (See more of the Sun now. Click here.) Credit: NASA/ESA.

While sidewalks crackle in the summer heat, NASA scientists are keeping a close eye on the sun. It is almost spotless, a sign that the Sun may have reached solar minimum. Scientists are now watching for the first spot of the new solar cycle to appear.

The 11 year long solar cycle is marked by two extremes, solar minimum and solar maximum. Solar minimum is the period of least solar activity in the solar cycle of the sun. During this time sunspot and solar flare activity diminishes, and often does not occur for days at a time.

When spots begin to appear on the sun once again, scientists know that the sun is heading into a new season of extreme solar activity. At the cycle's peak, solar maximum, the sun is continually peppered with spots, solar flares erupt, and the sun hurls billion-ton clouds of electrified gas into space.

Solar maximum is often compared to the hurricane season here on Earth. Violent solar events, like flares and coronal mass ejections, are the hurricanes of space weather. These solar storms are capable of wreaking havoc with satellites, power grids, and radio communication, including the Global Positioning System.

NOAA's Space Environment Center, Boulder CO, forecasts that the next solar cycle should begin in March 2008 and should peak in late 2011 or mid 2012.



comunque dice che ora come ora sulla superficie del sole non vi sono più macchie solari e quindi siamo al minimo dell'attività!
La previsione è che il nuovo ciclo non inizi in tempi tanto brevi, ma comunque dovrebbe toccare il suo massimo nel 2011 circa...

[Stormchaser]

ecco ora la carta dove sono tracciate le diverse linee previsionali

[Stormchaser]

e qui il comunicato del NOAA:


http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/9373/pressreleaseclipimage00oz5.jpg

NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL START LATE
Experts Split Over Intensity

The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts.

Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker. The Space Environment Center led the prediction panel and issued the forecast at its annual Space Weather Workshop in Boulder. NASA sponsored the panel.

“The Space Environment Center’s space weather alerts, warnings, and forecasts are a critical component of NOAA’s seamless stewardship of the Earth’s total environment, from the Sun to the sea,” said retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the Sun. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, shoot energetic photons and highly charged matter toward Earth, jolting the planet’s ionosphere and geomagnetic field, potentially affecting power grids, critical military and airline communications, satellites, Global Positioning System signals, and even threatening astronauts with harmful radiation. These same storms illuminate night skies with brilliant sheets of red and green known as auroras, or the northern or southern lights.

Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots – dark blotches on the Sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur.

In the cycle forecast issued today, half of the panel predicts a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots, plus or minus 20, expected to peak in October of 2011. The other half predicts a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots, plus or minus 10, peaking in August of 2012. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots. The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped shift the panel away from its earlier leaning toward a strong Cycle 24. Now the group is evenly split between strong and weak.

“By giving a long-term outlook, we’re advancing a new field—space climate—that’s still in its infancy,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Issuing a cycle prediction of the onset this far in advance lies on the very edge of what we know about the Sun.”

Scientists have issued cycle predictions only twice before. In 1989, a panel met to predict Cycle 22, which peaked that same year. Scientists met again in September of 1996 to predict Cycle 23—six months after the cycle had begun. Both groups did better at predicting timing than intensity, according to Space Environment Center scientist Douglas Biesecker, who chairs the current panel. He describes the group’s confidence level as “high” for its estimate of a March 2008 onset and “moderate” overall for the two estimates of peak sunspot number and when those peaks would occur.

One disagreement among the current panel members centers on the importance of magnetic fields around the Sun’s poles as the previous cycle decays. End-cycle polar fields are the bedrock of the approach predicting a weak Cycle 24. The strong-cycle forecasters place more importance on other precursors extending over a several-cycle history. Another clue will be whether Cycle 24 sunspots appear by mid 2008. If not, the strong-cycle group might change their forecast.

The first year after solar minimum, marking the end of Cycle 23, will provide the information scientists need to arrive at a consensus. NOAA and the panel decided to issue their best estimate now and update the forecast as the cycle progresses, since Space Environment Center customers have been requesting a forecast for over a year.

“The panelists in each camp have clear views on why they believe in their prediction, why they might be wrong, and what it would take to change their minds,” said Biesecker. “We’re on the verge of understanding and agreeing on which precursors are most important in predicting future solar activity.”

NOAA’s Space Environment Center is the nation’s first alert of solar activity and its affects on Earth. Just as NOAA’s hurricane experts predict the upcoming season of Atlantic storms and forecast individual hurricanes, the agency’s space weather experts issue outlooks for the next 11-year solar cycle and warn of storms occurring on the Sun that could impact Earth. Both the National Hurricane Center and Space Environment Center are among nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of NOAA’s National Weather Service. The Space Environment Center is also the world warning agency of the International Space Environment Service, a consortium of 11 member nations.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects. The National Science Foundation sponsors the annual Space Weather Workshop.

###

On the Web: NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov

NOAA’s Space Environment Center: http://www.sec.noaa.gov

[NIX FORTIS]

Cosa dice? :-K
(scusami ma l'inglese lo capisco poco)

[Stormchaser]

Cosa dice? :-K
(scusami ma l'inglese lo capisco poco)

scusa per il ritardo...domani ti rispondo!

[Effe5]

Cosa dice? :-K
(scusami ma l'inglese lo capisco poco)

belle cose x ora :love :-K

[NIX FORTIS]

Speriamo.........

[Stormchaser]

ecco una traduzione delle parti che ho messo in evidenza:

il titolo: il prossimo ciclo solare inizierà in ritardo e gli esperti di dividono sulla sua intensità futura

Il prossimo cliclo di 11 anni inzierà più o meno verso marzo 2008 e avere il suo picco nel 2011, o al massimo nel 2012...in ritardo rispetto al previsto

comunque dai dati in nostro possesso oggi il prossimo ciclo solare al suo massimo potrebbe risultare particolarmente intenso con molta attività solare....

[NIX FORTIS]

Quindi? :-K

[Stormchaser]

Quindi? :-K

quindi le previsioni danno il prossimo ciclo solare abbastanza più intenso, soprattutto nel suo massimo, del precedente...e questo be diciamo che potrebbe influenzare le cose in maniera positiva.

ma ovviamente potrebbe succedere anche il contrario :lurk ....non sappiamo ancora con sufficiente precisione l'influenza delle CME (emissioni di radiazioni dalla superficie solare) e gli altri fenomeni correlati con il clima terrestre.....purtroppo ancora ci siamo arrivati.


comunque un ciclo intenso farebbe ben sperare nel complesso...

[NIX FORTIS]

Dai allora speriamo in positivo!